Nú þegar líður að þriðju endurskoðun á aðstoð AGS til Íslands er athyglisvert að kíkja á gömul fyrirheit og athugasemdir í skjölum AGS sem finna má á vefsíðu þeirra: www.ifm.org
1. Icesave
Um Icesave er þessa mola að finna:
AGS segir:
„The need to reassess financing assurances contributed to a delay in the second review. Bilateral program financing from the Nordic countries has been linked to progress towards resolving the Icesave issue. Staff was comfortable that the program was fully financed for the next 12 months, due to a current account surplus in the presence of capital controls. However, the uncertainty introduced by the evolving Icesave negotiations meant that a new assessment of medium-term financing was necessary. It is staff’s assessment that financing assurances are in place: the Icelandic authorities have reaffirmed their intent to reach a settlement and unlock bilateral financing.“
„While the authorities remain committed to an Icesave solution to unlock bilateral program financing, it is possible that wider political barriers in Iceland prove insurmountable. In the event that the bilateral finance under the program is no longer available, the authorities’ economic program would confront a serious challenge in late 2011, when external public debt maturities begin to rise. Coping with this would likely require a considerable re-orientation of policies, including deep fiscal cutbacks. The authorities are aware of the possible challenge and have contingency plans in place, and have committed in the letter of intent to consult with the Fund in the event of this contingency.“
Íslensk stjórnvöld svara:
Iceland has already affirmed in its Letter of Intent dated 15 November 2008 that it is willing to ensure that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will be reimbursed in respect of deposits of Landsbanki branches in those two countries (up to the Euro 20,887 minimum provided for under Icelandic Law and the EU Deposit Guarantee Directive 90/19/EC). Iceland has also given an assurance that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will receive the reasonable time value of money, provided that comprehensive agreements are reached. Iceland remains ready to conclude at the earliest convenience the negotiations with the Governments of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands regarding a legal and financial settlement of this matter.
2. Gjaldþrot og uppboð eigna einstaklinga
AGS segir:
„The changes would primarily aim at: (i) providing additional debt advisory or mediation tools for debtors to facilitate debt workouts; (ii) providing further incentives to expedite voluntary out-of-court workouts; and (iii) expanding the coverage of debt distressed individuals. The authorities stressed that after these refinements they plan not to introduce any further modifications to the framework and indeed would allow the twice-extended moratorium on foreclosures to expire with no further extensions.“
Stjórnvöld svara:
We emphasize that with this refined framework in place, there will be no further extensions of the moratorium on foreclosures, and we will allow it to expire on schedule at end-October 2010.
3. Fjárlög 2011
AGS segir:
“The government has made significant progress in preparing the budget for 2011. The planned 3 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment can deliver a primary surplus and a reduction in Iceland’s public debt, provided budget implementation stays on track in 2010, and banking sector contingencies are small. Spending reductions are the bulk of the proposed adjustment, and the focus of the work should now be on translating approved administrative reductions into concrete measures.”
Andri Geir Arinbjarnarson
Ég er alltaf jafn hissa á því þegar ég skoða þessa hluti á Íslandi, hversu lítið af upplýsingum sem varða landið, og samskipti við alþjóðastofnanir er aðgengilegt, hvað þá aðgengilegt á íslensku.
Tökum tvö dæmi:
Niðurstaða EFTA Surveilance Authority (ESA) um Icesave er ekki að finna á vef stjórnarráðsins, né tengil við hana. Og ekki nóg með það, þessi bindandi niðurstaða (nema Ísland ákveði að fara fyrir EFTA dómstólinn) hefur ekki verið þýdd á íslensku!
Annað dæmi er aðkoma AGS að Íslandi. Maður myndi ætla að land sem liggur inni á gjörgæsludeild alþjóðlegrar stofnunar myndi reyna að miðla upplýsingum um hvað „læknirinn“ ráðlegði. Þeas., öllum fréttum frá AGS. Að það væri til dæmis til síða sem bæri nafnið: ags.fjarmalaraduneytið.is þar sem allt sem kæmi frá AGS og tengdist Íslandi væri um leið sett inn, og það mikilvægasta þýtt. Eins væri þar að finna upplýsingar um hvers eðlis aðstoðin sem Ísland hefur þegið er, og hvernig hún er samanborin við aðrar þjóðir. NB, þessar upplýsingar eru þegar til á vef IMF.
Önnur dæmi mætti nefna. Upplýsingar frá alþjóða hvalveiðiráðinu, upplýsingar frá WTO, og jafnvel ESB. Það virðist enginn metnaður í að afla og miðla þjóðinni upplýsingum um stöðu hennar í heiminum, og hvernig þátttaka hennar í alþjóðlegum stofnunum virkar.
En það er alveg urmull af upplýsingum um störf íslenskra nefnda á síðum stjórnsýslunnar. T.d., eru þúsundir upplýsingatengla sem tengjast kynjaðri fjárlagagerð og nokkur hundruð sem tengjast kirkjum og þátttöku embættismanna í starfi þeirra.
Kynlegir kvistir, Íslendingar.
Tek undir þetta Nafni. Það væri gaman að vita hvers konar neyðaráætlun er vísað í hjá AGS ef ekki semst um Icesave. Þegar AGS talar um „deep fiscal cutbacks“ er það örugglega niðurskurður af stærðargráðu sem fáir geta ímyndað sér.
Andri Geir, þetta er góð spurning. Kannski einhver hafi nennu til að taka þetta upp í þinginu?
En það er önnur hlið á þessu sem ég hef heyrt svolítið af þegar ég tala við vini og kunningja sem vinna hjá IMF. Hún er svolítið hættuleg, og Íslendingar kannski nógu vitlausir til að rata hana. Sú hlið er að IMF er ekki í því að reka lönd. Þeir koma með sínar ráðleggingar og hjálpa til með að fjármagna innan þess ramma sem þeir telja að sé nauðsynlegur. Auðvitað vita þeir að áætlanir eru ekki fullkomnar, svo þeir gefa sér góð vikmörk (eins og glöggt má sjá í því sem þú vitnar í hérna að ofan). En vandamálið er að lönd sem koma til kasta IMF eru ekki alltaf fær um að fara eftir ráðleggingunum, og fara stundum í hina áttina.
Þá gerist það að IMF verður svolítið eins og íslensku bankarnir voru–þeas. enginn vill viðurkenna að verkefnið hafi mistekist svo að IMF heldur áfram (með aðstoð lánveitandi ríkja) að lengja í snörunni. En hægt og hægt þá fer lánakostnaður og svigrúm til aðgerða að hverfa. Innan IMF eru ákveðnir bjúrókratískir vankantar sem gera það að verkum að enginn stöðvar vitleysuna fyrr en allt er komið í hönk, og lántökuþjóðin hefur farið úr öskunni í eldinn.
Þetta minnir svolítið á það sem gerist með fólk sem lendir í að vera með yfirdrátt, eða vanskil á greiðslukorti: til að byrja með er engin pressa á að draga úr neyslunni, því að manneskjan er enn að borga yfirdráttarvextina. En lítil áföll geta auðveldlega stöðvað hringekjuna.
Ísland er auðvitað ekki enn komið í þessa stöðu. En möguleikinn er vissulega fyrir hendi, og það má ekki treysta því að IMF verði einhvers konar lögregluyfirvald sem muni stöðva Íslendinga frá því að valda sér meira tjóni en þegar er orðið.
IMF er í hlutverki lóðsins til að leiðbeina skipstjóranum en hann getur ráðið hvort að þessu er farið. Um stýrið heldur ríkisstjórnin og ef skipið strandar eða festist er það á ábyrgð skipstjórans og áhafnarinnar enda lendir hún í sjónum og þar að svamla að landi en lóðsinn er fluttur í annað skip.
Ef ekki semst um Icesave og lánalínur lokast þá er eins og komist er að orði „a considerable re-orientation of policies, including deep fiscal cutbacks.“
Þá er frumskógarsveðjan notuð á ríkisútgjöldin en til lengri tíma litið hefði augljóslega verið betra að höggva niður straks en að safna skuldum með yfirdrátti á ríkissjóði sem nemur 1 1/2 Iceave skuldbindingu á hverju ári: , 2008, 2009, 2010 og væntanlega 2011. Of lítið og of hægt niðurskurðarferli og allt of lítil umbreyting í rekstri ríkisins miðað við þörf.
Menn gleyma þeirri grundvallarstaðreynd að efnahagsstærðir hvað viðvíkur skuldum eru lógarytmískar en ekki línulegar.
I’d be inclined to buy into with you on this. Which is not something I typically do! I enjoy reading a post that will make people think. Also, thanks for allowing me to speak my mind!
Great! Thanks for post
The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.
Hey, awesome website. I actually came across this on Bing, and I am stoked I did. I will definately be returning here more often. Wish I could add to the post and bring a bit more to the table, but am just absorbing as much info as I can at the moment.
Thank You
watch movies online
Hello there. I am very happy I found this webpage, I really discovered you by mistake, whilst I’d been searching Msn for another thing, Anyway I am here now and would just like to regards for the great site posting as well as a all round helpful web web site (I additionally like the theme/design). I have bookmarked it and also subscribed to the RSS feeds. My best wishes, Daniell.
I enjoyed their charming hospitality wherever the wars will probably continue long after I am gone from this planet.
Incidentally hit upon your page, right, i will glance often
dress up games jxssz
The beauty of these blogging engines and CMS platforms is the lack of limitations and ease of manipulation that allows developers to implement rich content and ‘skin’ the site in such a way that with very little effort one would never notice what it is making the site tick all without limiting content and effectiveness.
Wow, this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this too – taking time and actual effort to make a good post… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and never appear to get something done.
Your RSS feed doesn’t work in my browser (google chrome) how can I fix it?
Thank’s Web Master This Really a very interesting and helpful blog and the posts.
I was very encouraged to find this site. I wanted to thank you for this special read. I definitely savored every little bit of it including all the comments and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post.
Your own credit ranking standing is determined through the three credit ratings agencies checking at different aspects such as your current entire credit background, amount of credit balances with spectacular account balance, obligations
good post. cool i found your website
Great! Thanks for post
Just discovered this site thru Yahoo, what a pleasant surprise!
I find myself coming back to your blog site mainly because you have numerous fantastic insights and also you are actually at this a while, which is very inspiring and tells me you know your stuff.
Hey man, was just browsing through the net looking for some info and came across your post. I am impressed by the info that you have on this blogsite. It shows how well you understand this subject. Bookmarked this page, will come back for more. You, my friend, ROCK!!!
There are some interesting points in this article but I don’t know if I see all of them middle to middle . There is some validness but I will take hold judgment until I look into it further. Good clause, thanks and we want more! Added to FeedBurner likewise.
Spam, seriously people, get real, stop ruining everyone elses experience and go spam somewhere else. this isn’t my blog but i don’t appreciate it to be honest. thank you and have a nice day.
put together post. It is not advice noticed speech to make next week, and exactly.
one more great article. Where else could stuff like this and written customer, and this sort of.
hey We alerted info on $MRGP before ANYONE else ! http://pennystockrumors.net/must-read-very-important-mrgp/ Look at the day we posted it !
Great! Thanks for post
Your RSS feed doesn’t work in my browser (google chrome) how can I fix it?
I adore that blog site layout ! How do you make it? It’s rather sweet.
If you’re interested in the very best domestic cleaning services london this particular internet site can be the proper website!
Inform individuals why they need to subscribe, what’s in it for them?
produced post. every day advice I really liked reading customer, and always looking for.
Howdy, excelent, this is good stuff, I enjoy it allot.Cheers!
I did a quick search look up in Google about this topic and it seems to be that you are quite the authority in this area!!! Nice job. 🙂
Great posting and really aids with learning the topic much better.
You gave honest ideas there. I did a search on the issue and got most peoples will agree with your blog. One option would be take out ceiling panels.
Thanks for sharing. This is a wonderful post. I will return to read more.
really have to express you help to make many great points and definitely will post a a small number of thoughts to add on after a day or two.
If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.
hi just enjoying a general browse round and appeared here like you do but developed into an excellent read …would it be me or does this occur to otheres but i set of with all good intention usually either neem soap related and end up totally of on a different route ??
very good \o/
yet another terrific piece of work. get material information. working on some research, and material.
yet another document. often that you find advice reading through friend, and material.
Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article. It proved to be Very helpful to me and I am sure to all the commenters here! It’s always nice when you can not only be informed, but also entertained! I’m sure you had fun writing this article. And there are lots of factors outside of the auto rental industry’s control that affect their car rental rates too.
In the event you are just reading through this comment with out examining this post then please do that !! This is usually a well accomplished and straight for the place post! Thank you !
Only this live tranny can make me happy ! I d appreciate you to post additional! Please nad I ve bookmarked you!
guys, i just want definitely happy with this quality . you all do an awesome going over everything
hi just having a general browse round and wound up here just like you do but turned into a fantastic read …could it be me or does this occur to otheres but i set of with all good intention usually either spiritual related and finally end up totally of on a different route ??
i am really appreciating,woow very informative…..great job thank’s…!
two of us. you really to say what I thought It is refreshing to find people who write like they know what they are talking about
Awesome post bro. I like your writing style.
hi just having a general browse round and wound up here just like you do but turned into a fantastic read …could it be me or does this occur to otheres but i set of with all good intention usually angel card readings related and finally end up totally of on a different route ??
Sweet post bro. I like your blog.
I signed up to your blog rss feed. Will you post more on the topic?
I’m happy that all foreclosures are currently stopped. Lots of people are hiring http://bankruptcylawyer-s.com
Great post , it was just best and i loved all of it ! Just bookmarked you !
escort1468 nostrand avenue Brooklyn, NY 917. 675.5039
Great post bro. I LOVE your style of writing.
Awesome post bro. I like your blog.
Great post bro. I LOVE your style of writing.
Awesome post bromance. I LOVE your sense of writing.
Sweet post bromance. I like your writing style.
Awesome post bro. I like your style of writing.
gives you view of the issue. Thanks, i love to read views that enlightening beneficial anyway.
Great post bro. I LOVE your sense of writing.
I dont leave a lot of comments on a lot of blogs each week but i felt i had to here. Another great update.