Mánudagur 27.09.2010 - 09:38 - 67 ummæli

Úr skjalaskáp AGS

Nú þegar líður að þriðju endurskoðun á aðstoð AGS til Íslands er athyglisvert að kíkja á gömul fyrirheit og athugasemdir í skjölum AGS sem finna má á vefsíðu þeirra: www.ifm.org

1. Icesave

Um Icesave er þessa mola að finna:

AGS segir:

„The need to reassess financing assurances contributed to a delay in the second review. Bilateral program financing from the Nordic countries has been linked to progress towards resolving the Icesave issue. Staff was comfortable that the program was fully financed for the next 12 months, due to a current account surplus in the presence of capital controls.  However, the uncertainty introduced by the evolving Icesave negotiations meant that a new assessment of medium-term financing was necessary. It is staff’s assessment that financing assurances are in place: the Icelandic authorities have reaffirmed their intent to reach a settlement and unlock bilateral financing.“

While the authorities remain committed to an Icesave solution to unlock bilateral program financing, it is possible that wider political barriers in Iceland prove insurmountable. In the event that the bilateral finance under the program is no longer available, the authorities’ economic program would confront a serious challenge in late 2011, when external public debt maturities begin to rise. Coping with this would likely require a considerable re-orientation of policies, including deep fiscal cutbacksThe authorities are aware of the possible challenge and have contingency plans in  place, and have committed in the letter of intent to consult with the Fund in the event of this contingency.“

Íslensk stjórnvöld svara:

Iceland has already affirmed in its Letter of Intent dated 15 November 2008 that it is willing to ensure that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will be reimbursed in respect of deposits of Landsbanki branches in those two countries (up to the Euro 20,887 minimum provided for under Icelandic Law and the EU Deposit Guarantee Directive 90/19/EC). Iceland has also given an assurance that the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will receive the reasonable time value of money, provided that comprehensive agreements are reached. Iceland remains ready to conclude at the earliest convenience the negotiations with the Governments of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands regarding a legal and financial settlement of this matter.

2. Gjaldþrot og uppboð eigna einstaklinga

AGS segir:

„The changes would primarily aim at: (i) providing additional debt advisory or mediation tools for debtors to facilitate debt workouts; (ii) providing further incentives to expedite voluntary out-of-court workouts; and (iii) expanding the coverage of debt distressed individuals. The authorities stressed that after these refinements they plan not to introduce any further modifications to the framework and indeed would allow the twice-extended moratorium on foreclosures to expire with no further extensions.“

Stjórnvöld svara:

We emphasize that with this refined framework in place, there will be no further extensions of the moratorium on foreclosures, and we will allow it to expire on schedule at end-October 2010.

3.  Fjárlög 2011

AGS segir:

“The government has made significant progress in preparing the budget for 2011. The planned 3 percent of GDP fiscal adjustment can deliver a primary surplus and a reduction in Iceland’s public debt, provided budget implementation stays on track in 2010, and banking sector contingencies are small. Spending reductions are the bulk of the proposed adjustment, and the focus of the work should now be on translating approved administrative reductions into concrete measures.”

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Ummæli (67)

  • Andri Haraldsson

    Ég er alltaf jafn hissa á því þegar ég skoða þessa hluti á Íslandi, hversu lítið af upplýsingum sem varða landið, og samskipti við alþjóðastofnanir er aðgengilegt, hvað þá aðgengilegt á íslensku.

    Tökum tvö dæmi:

    Niðurstaða EFTA Surveilance Authority (ESA) um Icesave er ekki að finna á vef stjórnarráðsins, né tengil við hana. Og ekki nóg með það, þessi bindandi niðurstaða (nema Ísland ákveði að fara fyrir EFTA dómstólinn) hefur ekki verið þýdd á íslensku!

    Annað dæmi er aðkoma AGS að Íslandi. Maður myndi ætla að land sem liggur inni á gjörgæsludeild alþjóðlegrar stofnunar myndi reyna að miðla upplýsingum um hvað „læknirinn“ ráðlegði. Þeas., öllum fréttum frá AGS. Að það væri til dæmis til síða sem bæri nafnið: ags.fjarmalaraduneytið.is þar sem allt sem kæmi frá AGS og tengdist Íslandi væri um leið sett inn, og það mikilvægasta þýtt. Eins væri þar að finna upplýsingar um hvers eðlis aðstoðin sem Ísland hefur þegið er, og hvernig hún er samanborin við aðrar þjóðir. NB, þessar upplýsingar eru þegar til á vef IMF.

    Önnur dæmi mætti nefna. Upplýsingar frá alþjóða hvalveiðiráðinu, upplýsingar frá WTO, og jafnvel ESB. Það virðist enginn metnaður í að afla og miðla þjóðinni upplýsingum um stöðu hennar í heiminum, og hvernig þátttaka hennar í alþjóðlegum stofnunum virkar.

    En það er alveg urmull af upplýsingum um störf íslenskra nefnda á síðum stjórnsýslunnar. T.d., eru þúsundir upplýsingatengla sem tengjast kynjaðri fjárlagagerð og nokkur hundruð sem tengjast kirkjum og þátttöku embættismanna í starfi þeirra.

    Kynlegir kvistir, Íslendingar.

  • Tek undir þetta Nafni. Það væri gaman að vita hvers konar neyðaráætlun er vísað í hjá AGS ef ekki semst um Icesave. Þegar AGS talar um „deep fiscal cutbacks“ er það örugglega niðurskurður af stærðargráðu sem fáir geta ímyndað sér.

  • Andri Haraldsson

    Andri Geir, þetta er góð spurning. Kannski einhver hafi nennu til að taka þetta upp í þinginu?

    En það er önnur hlið á þessu sem ég hef heyrt svolítið af þegar ég tala við vini og kunningja sem vinna hjá IMF. Hún er svolítið hættuleg, og Íslendingar kannski nógu vitlausir til að rata hana. Sú hlið er að IMF er ekki í því að reka lönd. Þeir koma með sínar ráðleggingar og hjálpa til með að fjármagna innan þess ramma sem þeir telja að sé nauðsynlegur. Auðvitað vita þeir að áætlanir eru ekki fullkomnar, svo þeir gefa sér góð vikmörk (eins og glöggt má sjá í því sem þú vitnar í hérna að ofan). En vandamálið er að lönd sem koma til kasta IMF eru ekki alltaf fær um að fara eftir ráðleggingunum, og fara stundum í hina áttina.

    Þá gerist það að IMF verður svolítið eins og íslensku bankarnir voru–þeas. enginn vill viðurkenna að verkefnið hafi mistekist svo að IMF heldur áfram (með aðstoð lánveitandi ríkja) að lengja í snörunni. En hægt og hægt þá fer lánakostnaður og svigrúm til aðgerða að hverfa. Innan IMF eru ákveðnir bjúrókratískir vankantar sem gera það að verkum að enginn stöðvar vitleysuna fyrr en allt er komið í hönk, og lántökuþjóðin hefur farið úr öskunni í eldinn.

    Þetta minnir svolítið á það sem gerist með fólk sem lendir í að vera með yfirdrátt, eða vanskil á greiðslukorti: til að byrja með er engin pressa á að draga úr neyslunni, því að manneskjan er enn að borga yfirdráttarvextina. En lítil áföll geta auðveldlega stöðvað hringekjuna.

    Ísland er auðvitað ekki enn komið í þessa stöðu. En möguleikinn er vissulega fyrir hendi, og það má ekki treysta því að IMF verði einhvers konar lögregluyfirvald sem muni stöðva Íslendinga frá því að valda sér meira tjóni en þegar er orðið.

  • IMF er í hlutverki lóðsins til að leiðbeina skipstjóranum en hann getur ráðið hvort að þessu er farið. Um stýrið heldur ríkisstjórnin og ef skipið strandar eða festist er það á ábyrgð skipstjórans og áhafnarinnar enda lendir hún í sjónum og þar að svamla að landi en lóðsinn er fluttur í annað skip.
    Ef ekki semst um Icesave og lánalínur lokast þá er eins og komist er að orði „a considerable re-orientation of policies, including deep fiscal cutbacks.“
    Þá er frumskógarsveðjan notuð á ríkisútgjöldin en til lengri tíma litið hefði augljóslega verið betra að höggva niður straks en að safna skuldum með yfirdrátti á ríkissjóði sem nemur 1 1/2 Iceave skuldbindingu á hverju ári: , 2008, 2009, 2010 og væntanlega 2011. Of lítið og of hægt niðurskurðarferli og allt of lítil umbreyting í rekstri ríkisins miðað við þörf.

    Menn gleyma þeirri grundvallarstaðreynd að efnahagsstærðir hvað viðvíkur skuldum eru lógarytmískar en ekki línulegar.

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